Will the dollar rise to 100 rubles. What will happen to the dollar (ruble) in the near future - forecasts and expert opinions. What to do with ruble savings

Specialists who work in the field of budgeting took into account certain adjustments and fluctuations in the exchange rate of the domestic currency. Analyzing the expected economic processes, the average dollar exchange rate in 2018 should be in the range of 64.7 rubles, however, many analysts suggest that these fluctuations may be more significant.

The dollar will cost 100 rubles in 2018

The forecast that the rate of the domestic currency may weaken significantly is likely if a number of factors are observed. In order for 1 dollar to be purchased for 100 rubles, critical processes must be observed in the economy.

The US government can weaken the ruble if it introduces a new package of sanctions against Russian companies. The ruble exchange rate may fall to a critical point with an increase in oil production at a lower cost. Also, the rate of the domestic currency is affected by an imperfect policy of import substitution. Officials should optimize this area in order to completely abandon foreign products.

The main factor that could become decisive in the event of a possible collapse of the ruble is the outflow of capital abroad. If all of the above factors coincide, the exchange rate may change significantly, and as a result, one unit of foreign currency can be purchased for 100 rubles at the end of 2018.

Fresh news about the likely dollar exchange rate in 2018

Analysts who work on the territory Russian Federation and are actively studying the situation around the domestic monetary unit, they say that the maximum threshold for increasing the rate is 80 rubles per dollar. The sanctions that other countries are imposing on Russian enterprises are the main reason for the outflow of foreign investors from Russian markets.

Dmitry Polevoy, who is RDIF's chief economist, says that an increase in oil prices can save the ruble. Analysts agree that the ruble is an undervalued currency. Countries that impose sanctions against the Russian Federation put psychological pressure on the economy. The deterioration of economic indicators in the country is not observed.

Already, the government of the Russian Federation is introducing active measures in order to correct the exchange rate of the ruble. The Central Bank of the Russian Federation has suspended the purchase of foreign currency. So far, officials are reassuring people, arguing that there will be no collapse of the ruble.

The Russian national currency again fell victim to the August curse

The crisis of 20 years ago is still echoing today. Every year, Russians wait with bated breath for August, which they perceive as a "black" month. 2018 was no exception, throwing firewood on the fire of these mystical August fears. It was in the last month of the summer of 2018 that the ruble began to fall rapidly against the backdrop of ever-increasing sanctions pressure. Of course, the “wooden” one is not losing in price at the same pace as in 1998, but its weakening makes people seriously nervous. What will the ruble exchange rate be by the end of the year? What to invest in? Should we expect another default? Doctor of Economic Sciences Igor NIKOLAEV answered these and other questions from MK readers on a direct line in the editorial office.

Igor Alekseevich, the ruble exchange rate traditionally falls in August, but recovers by the New Year. Will it be the same this year? What will be the dollar and euro exchange rate at the end of 2018?

After the default of 1998, August is now always represented as a "black" month. However, I do not agree with this statement. For example, at the end of 2014, or rather in mid-December, the euro exchange rate broke through 100 rubles. It was a record fall in the exchange rate, by no means the August one. Therefore, one should not console oneself with the hope that with the advent of autumn, the dynamics of the ruble exchange rate will change direction. There are fundamental reasons for its further weakening, which are not related to the months of the year. Primarily we are talking about the state of the Russian economy, which leaves much to be desired. However, there will be no critical collapse, which was observed in 1998. But the ruble will be under increasing sanctions pressure. In particular, the adoption of the corresponding bill of the US Congress is possible in autumn, which has a very strong downward effect on the ruble exchange rate. By the end of 2018, we may see the dollar for 80 rubles and the euro for 90 rubles.

- Will there ever be conditions in Russia under which the ruble will not weaken, but strengthen?

Of course, someday such conditions will arise. But this requires our economy to be strong. Now we cannot boast of such a thing. The domestic economy is still dependent on the level of oil prices. It does not solve many structural problems. Plus, it is hit by the growing sanctions pressure, which seems to be for a long time. All this affects the exchange rate. Let's hope that someday the ruble will strengthen for real.

What is the best currency to save money in? As practice shows, the method often proposed by specialists - to split funds into three parts: dollars, euros and rubles - does not work. How to be?

I never liked this recipe either. No matter how much I would like to advise people to keep their funds in rubles, but, alas, I can’t yet. These are only dreams. Therefore, I have to recommend that you keep your savings in dollars if possible. I hope that the circulation of "green" in Russia will not be banned. However, such a risk, although minimal, but still exists. And this must be borne in mind.

Recently, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said that Russia could abandon the dollar for oil exports and switch to the ruble. Is such an option possible? And under what circumstances?

In order to move to such a scheme, there is little desire on the part of one Russian side. We need the interest of the country that buys oil from us. She must have rubles. Mr. Siluanov's proposal sounds beautiful in words. In fact, this is still a difficult initiative to implement. Who is interested in having rubles to pay for Russian oil, while the “wood” is falling? The country that pays us for oil needs a strong currency, and this, whatever one may say, is now the dollar. Moreover, it is more profitable for us to pay for oil in dollars, since the American currency is growing.

The government claims that we are not afraid of sanctions. But as soon as the States announce the next restrictive measures, the ruble falls. Is it possible to estimate what damage Washington's steps are doing to our currency?

What is a depreciating ruble? First of all, it is the growing uncertainty of the economic situation. The investor does not understand what to prepare for, what to focus on. For example, according to the forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development, the average annual exchange rate of the ruble against the dollar in 2018 should be 60.8 rubles. When the rate jumped to 68 rubles - and this is the official forecast rate as early as 2024! - Investors were confused. They do not understand what is happening and what the course will be. In such a situation, normal investors make a pragmatic decision: take a break and not invest in the Russian economy. They freeze their activity, which as a result negatively affects our economy. Moreover, those reforms that our government is going to carry out, under the conditions of sanctions, will not give the effect that officials are counting on. The necessary rates of economic growth will not be. This is the main damage from sanctions.

At the same time, the most serious sanctions relate to sovereign Russian debt, that is, a ban on Americans buying Russian bonds. It destroys the mechanism of maintaining and strengthening the "wooden", which worked before. After all, what happened last year and the beginning of this year? The economy did not become strong, but at the same time the exchange rate strengthened to 55-56 rubles per dollar. Why? The point is that a speculative mechanism was at work. The share of non-residents among buyers of Russian bonds as of April 1, 2018 amounted to a record 34%. But in April, new sanctions were introduced, and non-residents began to leave, and the rate immediately swung - 60-63 rubles for the "green". The exchange rate of the ruble was kept at the expense of carry trade operations, when non-residents buy Russian bonds for dollars, and then sell them at a good profitability and convert the proceeds rubles back into dollars. But from April 1 to July 1, the share of non-residents in Russian bonds fell from 34% to 28%. And with new sanctions against the sovereign debt of the Russian Federation, this mechanism will be completely destroyed. So far, these are only intentions, but with a high degree of probability they will be adopted by the US Congress. And then do not expect anything good.

The law on the increase in the VAT rate has already led to an increase in prices. Now the ruble has also weakened. What goods and services will rise in price first of all?

Everything will rise in price. The fact is that VAT is included in the cost of any product and any service. Of course, there is food and medicine, where the preferential rate is 10%. Theoretically, their prices should not rise. However, I assure you that against the general inflationary background, the price tags will rise for them as well. Paradoxically, the price of what is in high demand rises. Therefore, by the end of the year, when the seasonal harvest is long over, food prices will rise most noticeably.

It is reported that in the near future the price of air tickets abroad will increase. How much? How will the cost of flights within the country change?

The cost of air tickets abroad is denominated in foreign currency. Air carriers made no secret of the fact that the rise in prices due to the appreciation of the dollar should be 5-8%. The course jumped, and they review the price once a week. International flights will certainly rise in price. Meanwhile, domestic flights, in theory, should not. However, when imports become more expensive, the prices for domestic goods and services follow them. Therefore, most likely, over time, prices will increase for domestic flights.

Our family plans to acquire their own housing. We are thinking about getting a mortgage. Is it worth it now to take on such obligations or is it better to wait?

If you are sure that if the economic situation worsens, your family income will not change and you will be able to pay off the mortgage, then feel free to take a home loan. With the current rate, it's profitable. It all depends on the prospects for your income in the foreseeable future.

The exchange rate of the ruble continues to decline, and this trend in exchange trading is strengthening every day. Despite the statements of financial regulators that there are no objective reasons for the further fall of the national currency, last week the euro overcame the psychologically important mark of 80 rubles. And on September 12, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation set official rates at the level of 81.39 rubles per euro and 69.97 rubles per dollar.

A drop in sales, mainly in European destinations, is also recorded in network travel agencies. “But so far it is insignificant and can be associated both with an increase in the exchange rate, and with an unstable situation in the tourism market as a whole,” comments the situation, Director of Network Development "RossTour". At the same time, she added that there were no noticeable changes in the structure of demand over the past week. “Tourists who have already planned their holidays do not change their plans at the moment,” Slugina said. At the same time, observers do not rule out that, with further jumps, travelers may reorient themselves both to other outbound destinations and to domestic ones.

Of course, there are people who are ready to go on vacation abroad at almost any rate. But they are few. Let's try to evaluate together how best to optimize the cost of vacation? Take part in surveys.

The ruble continues to fall, and in its fall it destroys the financial system of Russia that has been built up over the years. Even the intervention of the Central Bank of Russia and the increase in the interest rate to 7.5% cannot keep the national currency of Russia from devaluation. What awaits the Russian ruble in 2019 and how much will it depreciate against the American one?

100 rubles for 1 dollar by the middle of 2019: reasons

So, let's look at the reasons why the US dollar will cost 100 rubles by mid-2019. There are several.

1. Western sanctions

It's no secret that most of the oligarchs in Putin's inner circle keep their cash in Western banks. In particular, only in the United States is about 1 trillion. dollars, as well as at least 500 billion dollars in the UK. Since March 2018, the United States has introduced personal against the "wallets" of the President of Russia - Deripaska, Abramovich, Vekselberg, Shamalov and a number of other Russian billionaires, as well as their companies. Such instruments of influence immediately caused the collapse of the Russian stock market, as well as a sharp depreciation of the Russian currency.

2. Low oil prices will continue in 2019

During 2014-2017, the price of oil fell from $115 to $40 per barrel. In the first half of 2018, this trend will only intensify. And this is not a force majeure at all, but rather a pattern. After all, since 2012, the shale revolution has taken place in the United States, as a result of which the cost of oil production has decreased to $20 per barrel, and the reserves of new oil fields in the United States are huge. In addition, for the first time in 40 years, oil traders from the United States received permission to sell oil on the foreign market. At the same time, there is some slowdown in the global economy, especially in the Eurozone countries and China, which are the main buyers of black. In addition, Libya resumed deliveries to the oil products market, and Saudi Arabia increased oil production.

Read also: How the exchange rate of the Russian ruble depends on the price of oil

3. Capital outflow from Russia will increase in 2019

The second significant reason that influenced the devaluation of the ruble is the outflow of capital: this is the departure of foreign investors along with their assets, and the reduction in dollar deposits of the population in Russian banks, and simply the placement of funds in Western banks. According to various estimates, the outflow of capital in 2018 reached $150 billion, and in next year it is expected that the flight of capital from Russia will not only not decrease, but will increase. This means that in order to equalize the balance of payments average price oil $35 per barrel – the economy needs to cut imports by more than $400 billion, or about half. Thus, to equalize the balance of payments, we obtain an exchange rate in the region of 100 rubles per dollar.

4. The Russian economy will continue its decline in 2019

The fall of Russia, which began at the end of 2014, will continue in 2019. The reason for this is the departure of foreign investors and the curtailment of the business of Western companies that had significant shares in Russian business. This state of affairs is a consequence of Western capital's lack of confidence in the Russian authorities and is primarily associated with sanctions against Russia. In addition, against the background of the galloping ruble, the domestic market will also shrink, due to a fall in the population's demand for goods and services.

Thus, taking into account the above factors, we should expect the exchange rate of 100 rubles for 1 dollar by the middle of 2019. As for the development of the further situation, many experts believe that until 2020 the devaluation of the ruble to 200 rubles per dollar should be expected.

The beginning of this year was quite active on the stock exchange. And even those who are in no way connected with it could watch and read how the dollar is growing rapidly. They showed queues at exchange offices and reports from the exchange "fields", urging them not to worry and convincing them of the normality of such a situation and in full control over it. But in fact, futures for the dollar ruble rose this year by 13 rubles. This cannot but raise questions and fears, will the growth continue and for how long?

Let's figure it out.

The dollar exchange rate directly depends on oil prices. The higher the price of oil, the lower the dollar and vice versa. In order to guess what will happen to the dollar, it would be nice to know what could happen to oil. In this matter, we can only rely on facts.

As you can see, oil in the 90s was in the range of $10-25 per barrel. And the price of $10 per barrel is a historic low.

This year, oil literally collapsed from $38 to $27 per barrel, which actually led to such a rise in the dollar. What you should pay attention to: 01/21/2016 there was a correction, but the hourly maximum of $32.5 per barrel was not overcome until it happens that it is premature to talk about growth; the price often tends to test "round" numbers and historical lows, highs, so the decline in oil prices has every reason. If this happens, then the dollar will cost more than 100 rubles.

This is a daily chart for futures. dollar - ruble. It goes like a mirror reflection of oil. The all-time high was at 90,000, this year, even with increased volatility, it was not tested. Now we are seeing a correction. It is possible to talk about a medium-term decrease in the cost of the dollar-ruble futures only when the price falls below 76,000. And after the mark of 90,000, unlimited price opportunities open up. That was already the case in 2014. Thinking where else the price could go up? She showed us that anything is possible.

As history has proven time and again, in any critical situation, you can only rely on yourself. Regardless of the exchange rate, following simple rules, you can painlessly survive its increase.

Do not buy currency at the maximum price. As a rule, when a panic begins due to information from the media, the rate has already risen so much on the stock exchange that it may begin to decline or correct.
Control your expenses.
Create a "cushion" of safety. Set aside 10% of the money you earn, even if it seems like a small amount.
Create new sources of income. This will save you from any currency fluctuations. Will guarantee financial stability.

For those who are engaged in trading professionally: